Causes and Effects of Climate Change

August 7, 2022August 7, 2022 by Prakhar Agrahariin Environment, PollutionLeave a Comment

Reading Time: 15 minutes

The world is going through a time of global warming that has never happened before. Changes in rain and snow patterns, rising sea levels, more and stronger droughts, wildfires, storms, tornadoes, and hurricanes are all effects of global warming. These effects, which are now obvious, are becoming more important and severe every year and are likely to change our lives and the lives of our children and their children in future. Climate change is one of the biggest threats that humanity is facing today.

The greenhouse effect is the main factor contributing to the planet’s warming. Some feedback mechanisms, such as the evaporation of water from the oceans and the loss of albedo effect on polar ice sheets, make the situation worse, leading to more global warming and possibly, in the not too distant future, an uncontrolled global warming disaster. In this article, we discuss the causes of climate change (mainly greenhouse effect) and some of the impacts of climate change.

Greenhouse Effect

The greenhouse effect was first thought of by Joseph Fourier in the 1820s. He thought that something in the earth’s atmosphere controlled the temperature at the surface of the earth. He was investigating the origins of historic glaciers and the ice sheets that once used to cover most of Europe. Decades later, Tyndall took Fourier’s idea and used an experiment set up by Macedonio Melloni to show that CO2 could absorb a lot more heat than other gases. This supported Fourier’s idea and showed that CO2 was the part of the atmosphere that Fourier was looking for. Many researchers tried to measure CO2 and warn the world about the increasing concentrations of CO2, but it was only in the 1960s, when C.D. Keeling measured the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and found that it was rising quickly, and that anthropogenic activities were to blame for it.

The greenhouse effect of water vapour is significantly greater than that of carbon dioxide. Also, the amount of water vapour in the air is about a hundred times higher than the amount of CO2, as a result water is responsible for more than 60% of the global warming effect. The temperature determines how much water vapour is in the air. When the amount of CO2 in the air goes up, the global temperature goes up by only a small amount, but that’s enough to cause more water vapour to be released from the oceans and get into the air. The biggest impact on the world’s temperature comes from this feedback mechanism. Interestingly, the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is controlled by the concentration of CO2, which in turn determines the global average surface temperature. In fact, if there was no CO2 in the air, the planet’s surface temperature would be about 33°C lower than it is now.

The sun radiates energy on the earth with wavelengths that range from 0.3 to 5 μm. There is a lot of energy coming from the sun. It heats the atmosphere we breathe in and everything on Earth. At night, a lot of this heat energy is sent back into space, but at different wavelengths, which are in the infrared range from 4 to 50 μm. According to Planck’s Law of blackbody radiation, the temperature of a body affects the frequency of the heat it emits. When this energy leaves the Earth, it heats the molecules of greenhouse gases (like H2O, CO2, CH4, etc.) in the air. Let’s understand this using CO2 and H2O as examples. This heating process happens because the radiated Infrared frequency is in sync (resonates) with the natural frequency of the carbon-oxygen bond of CO2 (4.26 m is the asymmetric stretching vibration mode and 14.99 m is the bending vibration mode) and the oxygen-hydrogen bond of H2O. The CO2 and H2O molecules are heated because their bond vibrations are increased. When these molecules heat up, they transfer their energy to the other molecules in the atmosphere (N2, O2), maintaining a consistent temperature on Earth. The O-O bond in oxygen molecules and the N-N bond in nitrogen molecules both have vibrational frequencies that are different than the radiation frequencies, hence they are unaffected by the radiation that leaves Earth at night.

Global warming

There is overwhelming evidence from the scientific community that human activities are to blame for the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, and thus for the resulting global warming. This view is shared by each and every scientific group and research organisation focusing on climate change. The current rise in global temperature has been triggered by an almost 50 percent increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, from 280 ppm (before the industrial revolution) to 417 ppm in May 2020. Total atmospheric CO2 and it’s concentration value are the most reliable measurements of global warming we have right now. In 1960, the rate of increase of CO2 was less than 1 ppm per year. Whereas, right now it is 2.4 ppm per year.

This rate of change is the best way to tell if we are making progress in stopping global warming. At the moment, there are no signs that this is happening. In fact, the opposite is true. Even if we stopped burning fossil fuels, it would take a long time for CO2 levels to go down because the lifetime of CO2 is of the order of hundreds of years in the upper atmosphere. The most convincing evidence that the rise in CO2 is the most likely cause of global warming can be seen in graphs that show how the amount of CO2 in the air and the average temperature around the world have changed over time over the past several decades (see Fig. 1, Fig. 2). Over the past 60 years, the average temperature around the world has shown a similar trend as that of CO2 levels. The Average global temperatures from 2010 to 2022 compared to a baseline average from 1951 to 1980 can be seen in (Fig. 3).

Figure 1:Carbon dioxide concentration level.

Source: NASA satellite observations.

Figure 2:Global temperature variation.

Source: NASA satellite observations.

Figure 3: Average global temperatures from 2010 to 2022 compared to a baseline average from 1951 to 1980.

Source: NASA Data

Impact of climate change

One of the most pressing challenges confronting humanity today is climate change and how to minimize the damage it causes. It’s multifaceted, therefore solving it will require expertise in many disciplines like science, economics, society, governance and ethics. Consequences from global warming will be felt for generations, if not centuries. While it will be impossible to completely stop global warming, its growth rate is within our control. As the world’s temperatures continue to rise, it will have a negative effect on the world’s economy, energy supply, environmental quality, and health.

So far, some of the effects of climate change are –

Earth is getting warmer: As temperatures rise, days of extreme heat that used to happen once every 20 years may now happen every 2 or 3 years on average With the exception of June, 2016 was the warmest year on record from January to September (NASA, 2020c). Since 2005, 10 of the warmest years in the record-keeping period of 140 years have happened. Six of the hottest years on record occurred in the past six years (IPCC, 2018).
Oceans get warmer: Over 90% of the warming that has happened on Earth in the past 50 years has happened in the oceans (NASA, 2020c). Rising sea levels, ocean heat waves, coral bleaching, severe storms, changes in marine ecosystem, and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets around Greenland and Antarctica are all caused by warmer oceans. The waters were warmer last year than they have ever been since measurement of ocean temperature started more than 60 years ago.
Ice Sheets are shrinking: Between 1993 and 2016, the Greenland ice sheet lost an average of 286 billion tonnes of ice per year. During the same time period, the Antarctic ice sheet lost about 127 billion tonnes of ice per year. In the last ten years, the rate of ice mass loss in Antarctica has tripled (NASA).
Glacial retreat: Most of the world’s glaciers are melting, including those in Africa, Alaska, the Alps, Andes, Himalayas, and the Rocky Mountains. Most of the sea level rise in the last few decades has been caused by glaciers and ice sheets melting. The melting of glaciers is a major threat to ecosystems and water supplies for people in many parts of the world.
Sea level rise: The sea level rises when the oceans get warmer and glaciers and other ice start to melt. When the water in the ocean gets warmer, it expands. This makes the sea level rise even more. In the last 100 years, the sea level rose about 20 cm around the world. In the last two decades, the rate of growth was twice as fast as in the last century, and this rate is getting faster. Flooding is getting worse and happening more often in many places.
Increased frequency of extreme hydrological and meteorological events: Since the middle of the last century, there have been more events with record high temperatures and heavy rainfall. Since the early 1980s, hurricanes have been getting stronger, happening more often, and lasting longer. As the oceans continue to warm, hurricane storms will get stronger and rain will fall at a faster rate.
Oceans are getting more acidic: Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, the surface waters of the oceans have become about 30% more acidic. The cause of this increase is that humans are releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which causes more of it to be absorbed by the oceans. Carbon dioxide is being taken up by the top layer of the oceans at a rate of about 2 billion tonnes per year.

Future Scenario

According to reports made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average global temperature is on track to rise by 3°C by the end of this century. Their goal is a maximum of 1.5°C, but reaching that goal will require “rapid, far-reaching, and unprecedented changes in all parts of society. To reach a goal of 1.5°C warming, greenhouse gas emissions will need to be cut by 45 percent below what they were in 2010 by 2030. And, as we’ve already said, even if all of these emissions stopped right now, the world’s temperature would still rise for decades because of the long lasting effects of the atmosphere and oceans. Climate change affects the quality of our environment, our food supplies, our susceptibility to diseases and other health problems, and our ability to make money. Most of these effects are being felt and will continue to be felt more in the future and sadly more by the poor than by the rich.

Causes and Effects of Climate Change

Greenhouse Effect

Global warming

Figure 1:Carbon dioxide concentration level.

Source: NASA satellite observations.

Figure 2:Global temperature variation.

Source: NASA satellite observations.

Figure 3: Average global temperatures from 2010 to 2022 compared to a baseline average from 1951 to 1980.

Source: NASA Data

Impact of climate change

So far, some of the effects of climate change are –

Earth is getting warmer: As temperatures rise, days of extreme heat that used to happen once every 20 years may now happen every 2 or 3 years on average With the exception of June, 2016 was the warmest year on record from January to September (NASA, 2020c). Since 2005, 10 of the warmest years in the record-keeping period of 140 years have happened. Six of the hottest years on record occurred in the past six years (IPCC, 2018).
Oceans get warmer: Over 90% of the warming that has happened on Earth in the past 50 years has happened in the oceans (NASA, 2020c). Rising sea levels, ocean heat waves, coral bleaching, severe storms, changes in marine ecosystem, and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets around Greenland and Antarctica are all caused by warmer oceans. The waters were warmer last year than they have ever been since measurement of ocean temperature started more than 60 years ago.
Ice Sheets are shrinking: Between 1993 and 2016, the Greenland ice sheet lost an average of 286 billion tonnes of ice per year. During the same time period, the Antarctic ice sheet lost about 127 billion tonnes of ice per year. In the last ten years, the rate of ice mass loss in Antarctica has tripled (NASA).
Glacial retreat: Most of the world’s glaciers are melting, including those in Africa, Alaska, the Alps, Andes, Himalayas, and the Rocky Mountains. Most of the sea level rise in the last few decades has been caused by glaciers and ice sheets melting. The melting of glaciers is a major threat to ecosystems and water supplies for people in many parts of the world.
Sea level rise: The sea level rises when the oceans get warmer and glaciers and other ice start to melt. When the water in the ocean gets warmer, it expands. This makes the sea level rise even more. In the last 100 years, the sea level rose about 20 cm around the world. In the last two decades, the rate of growth was twice as fast as in the last century, and this rate is getting faster. Flooding is getting worse and happening more often in many places.
Increased frequency of extreme hydrological and meteorological events: Since the middle of the last century, there have been more events with record high temperatures and heavy rainfall. Since the early 1980s, hurricanes have been getting stronger, happening more often, and lasting longer. As the oceans continue to warm, hurricane storms will get stronger and rain will fall at a faster rate.
Oceans are getting more acidic: Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, the surface waters of the oceans have become about 30% more acidic. The cause of this increase is that humans are releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which causes more of it to be absorbed by the oceans. Carbon dioxide is being taken up by the top layer of the oceans at a rate of about 2 billion tonnes per year.

Future Scenario

Temperature Impact On The Economy

November 2, 2021November 2, 2021 by Sarthakin Economy, EnvironmentLeave a Comment

Reading Time: 3 minutes

It is often observed in the present world that most prosperous countries are mainly in the colder regions of the globe. Is this the truth? Or is it just a coincidence?
Are there any valid reasons for this money distribution? Let’s find out together.

Is there a relation between temperature and economy?

If you look at this map, you’ll realize that almost all the developed countries lie outside the tropics.

This shows that there is some strength in the statement that colder nations are wealthier.

Economic data show that with every one-degree increase in the temperature, GDP per capita of the country decreases by ₹762. Also, research shows that a country’s economy depends 9% on the climate outside. Even if it does not sound much, it is a huge number! Let us dig into the “Why.”

Possible reasons for this money distribution:

There are many theories put forward to explain this, but none was able to explain it perfectly. Some of them are:

Due to colder climates, agriculture is not possible in those countries, and the residents have to be extra conscious about their food. They have to stock food, reserve fuels and build good shelters to survive winters. Compounding over generations, this led to a society that valued storing resources, and this gave them a head start against hot countries where food was always available.
Due to weather conditions, agriculture was not a flourishing field. Cold countries have to focus on industries to survive; they eventually became industrial countries earlier than hotter ones, again giving them a headstart in this richness.

Some people also believe that this is because, in hot weather, the temper of people stays high, while in colder countries, people remain calm. Hence, government and business leaders can make better decisions in colder countries having a calm mind.

Hence, both data and theories could somewhat explain why cold countries are more prosperous, but will this be true for the future?

Will this trend continue in the future?

The answer to that is, not necessarily. Why? Let’s investigate further.

The answer to that is not necessarily. Why? Let us investigate further.

About 2,000 years ago, a country’s wealth was strongly linked to how much food it could produce. These days, the food production and distribution industry is so developed that every country has enough stock to feed its population. Hence, in modern days, wealth is driven by innovation.

Colder countries just got a head start because of a few factors, but some hot countries like Singapore, Dubai, Bahrain, and Qatar have shown that this head start will not last forever. All these countries are in hotter regions but are excelling in terms of development and richness. Also, in ancient times, Egypt, Rome, Mayans, Persians, all these rich countries were in the hot regions. Hence, every country has immense potential irrespective of its temperature. The trend of cold countries being more prosperous is most likely to be broken in the coming few decades. The land which will innovate will be at the top regardless of the weather outside.

Let us talk about India.

As we have seen, the economy depends 9% on temperature, which means almost ten times that economy depends on other factors like governance, innovation, and youth.

We can learn several things from countries that are in the hotter region yet developed, like Singapore.

Tax laws and Company policies: Ease of doing business. It attracts foreign companies to come to our country. Although India’s rank improved from 142 to 63 in the past five years under the present government, there is still a long way to go. Singapore stands at second position in this.
No tolerance for corruption.
Adequate distribution of resources.

So, it is clear that any country can become a developed one bypassing its geographic and climate conditions. Therefore, rather than thinking about the conditions we cannot control, let us focus on some that we can. Let us upskill ourselves. It is our responsibility to help the government in whatever way we can. They are the ones taking India towards development.

Hence, we cannot just say that India is not a developed country due to the hot weather conditions. There is a lot more to be improved upon.

How to Build a Forest in your Backyard – The Miyawaki Method

July 9, 2019July 19, 2019 by Naman Mathurin Pollution, EnvironmentLeave a Comment

Reading Time: 8 minutes

by-
Naman Mathur – CEV Member
Mechanical Engineering (NIT Surat)

Let us start this blog with a little off-topic.

Have you seen the growing trend of JCB Construction…?
Have you ever thought, why such a hype for something which is pretty usual to find?

It’s just a machine. Memes on JCB Construction does nothing but exposes the dark side of our earth, i.e. we have affected our environment a lot with the introduction to The Concrete World. Cities and nations tend to wear these new skyscrapers and structures as a badge of honour of development. We people too acknowledge cities like Singapore, New York and Mumbai as ‘Very Developed Cities’ giving them a misconception that development links only with giant concrete construction. But there needs to be a change in thinking which associate development with Construction of Forest.

‘Construction of Forest’ seems like a foolish concept as we caught the wrong feeling of the definition of a forest. People think the forest is an isolated piece of land where animals live together. But I believe the wood can be an integral part of urban existence. For me, a forest is a place so dense with trees that you can’t just walk into it. It doesn’t matter how big or small they are. It can be a big spread of land with acres and acres of trees, or it can be just a piece of land in your backyard. Size doesn’t matter in the functioning of the forest. Most of the world we live in today was a forest. This was, of course, before the human intervention. We built up our cities on those forests, forgetting that this motherland belongs us equally as the other 8.4 million species on the planet. We constructed a concrete world on our forests, and we all know its consequences. Global Warming, Climate Change, Depletion in groundwater, Soil Erosion and what not!

Conferences and discussions are held often in understanding the issue of Global Warming, and Climate Changes with the experts stating the fate human world will have to face if we don’t do something and avert this problem. But one of the most crucial pressure point of this problem, that even the experts fail to reflect on is the sense of self-motivation towards a better environment. With the growing number of events regarding environmental awareness and social awareness, a considerable amount of people has got the gist of the issue. But a huge percentage of people fail to have that feeling to work for a better environment. We, humans, are born a little selfish. Thus, we are very inactive to find a solution to environmental issues.

So I think to avert the wrath of nature we need to think out of the box towards a little more conventional thought process. Just like our ancestors built a concrete world on our beautiful nature land, we now need to construct natural world back on this concrete world. Miyawaki Method of Afforestation is one such measure which if implemented and maintained adequately can be the stepping stone to a better environment. In this method, we are constructing forests on the concrete world. It also promotes the idea of the Natural Development of a Place.

ORIGIN OF MIYAWAKI METHOD

Miyawaki Forest was pioneered by Japanese Botanist Akira Miyawaki, who is an active world-renowned specialist working towards the restoration of the natural vegetation on degraded lands. Miyawaki showed that natural Japanese temperate forest should be mainly composed of deciduous trees – while in practice, conifers often dominate. Deciduous trees are still present around tombs and temples, where they get protected from exploitation for religious and cultural reasons.

As his research progressed, he found that forest vegetation of Japan has declined due to the introduction of alien species by man. He immediately felt the need to take charge and stop this human interference into nature.

Difference between Miyawaki Method and Conventional Method of Afforestation

Consider Miyawaki Method as a more advanced version of any conventional method of the plantation. Miyawaki Method takes into account features like nutrients in the land, native plantation of the area and other scientific backgrounds of the site. Conventional Method ensures just one tree per square foot opposing to thirty trees per square foot. Limited species are available for the old method while 25-50 species are available for multi plantation method of Miyawaki Method. Miyawaki Forests, also known as Multi-Layer Forest, are self-sufficient forests after 3 -4 years while extensive maintenance is necessary for growth in the usual way of the plantation. So clearly Miyawaki Method, though a little complex can be very useful and better than the conventional method.

Process of Miyawaki Method of Afforestation

This article shares the primary impressions to create small forests in small urban spaces, as little as 30 square feet. If followed effectively, these steps can ensure you of creating a natural, wild, maintenance-free, native forests.

STEP 1. Soil Analysis and Quantify Biomass

Soil Analysis helps in getting information about properties like water holding capacity, water infiltration, root perforation capacity, nutrient retention and credibility. Also check if the texture is sandy, loamy or clayey.

Requirements for the soil

Nutrients are essential in the ground for the healthy growth of the forest. Preferably organic fertilisers like cow manure and vermicompost. Cow Manure is found easily in dairy farms, but Vermicompost is provided small amounts of nutrients over a long period.

This method of afforestation requires a considerable amount of water. So it is essential to maximise the utilisation of water. So we use water retaining materials like coco-peat or dry sugarcane stalk.

Proper air is essential for the roots to grow as they’re the base of the trees. So perforation is a requirement in the Miyawaki Method of Afforestation. Rice Husk, Wheat Husk, etc. can be used as perforator materials.

At the age of 6-8 months, when the plants are young, direct sunlight can make the soil dry and make conditions difficult for the young sample. So Mulch is used to insulate and protect the soil. Options include rice straw or corn stalk.

STEP-2 Selection of Tree Species

Plants are area and climate-specific in nature. So in this method, we need first to study the native plant species of the area given.
For this method, the forest must contain trees of different heights, age and nutrients. Ideal height varies from 50 to 80 cm.
Major Species: 5 major native species should be found that are commonly found in the area which will constitute 50-60 per cent of the forest.
Supporting Species: Other common species of the area will constitute 25-40 per cent, and other minor species will make up the rest.

STEP-3 Forest Designing

Proper planning is essential to increase the efficiency of several growing trees and to maximise the use of resources.
A master plan is designed to identify the exact area for afforestation to get an idea of the materials required for the method.
Also, to ensure that we don’t wastewater in the process, we need to plan water usage as well based on daily water access, backed by borewells and tanks.
If the project is big enough, we also need to identify spaces for materials, sapling, equipment, etc.

STEP-4 Area Preparation

The site should be effectively inspected to ensure the feasibility of the project. Proper fencing should be constructed to make sure that no cattle can damage the growth of the forest.
Weeds and debris should be removed and disposed of effectively. Ensure pulled out weeds are disposed of away of the site, else they may grow.
Facility for watering the plants should be installed. The requirement of water is around 5 litres/sq metre per day.
The site should get proper sunlight for minimum 8-9 hours a day for better growth of trees.
The slope of the land should be such that the water and nutrients are spread across evenly.
The area can be divided into parts, if the site is big, for proper monitoring and maintenance of the forest.

STEP-5 Tree Plantation

This might be the most important step of the Miyawaki Method of Afforest.
First, dig the soil up to 1 m depth on the land. Then again put the half of the dug soil back into the pit uniformly. This is to increase the perforations in the soil, and it loosens the soil too.
Also, mix the biomass with the soil to increase the nutrient count in the land.
In Miyawaki Method all the samplings should be planted together on the mound, rather than the conventional method of digging individual pits for the sampling.
To ensure the forest grows in three different layers- Shrub, Sub Tree and canopy, we need to plant the saplings in a specific manner.
Try not to place two similar trees next to each other and also ensure not to form any specific pattern while planting plants. Remember, the goal is to form a random plantation to get a dense group of trees.
Mixing materials like perforator and water retainers should be well mixed for each mound.
After the saplings are planted, proper mulch should be evenly laid out on the soil in a 6-8 inch layer. Mulch needs to be tied down with the use of bamboo ropes so that they don’t fly around.
As discussed earlier, watering should be performed effectively with about 5 litres per square metre.

STEP-6 Maintenance and Monitoring for the Forest

Plants are very sensitive at a young age. So the samplings should be monitored at least for the first 8-12 months, once every 1-2 months. If any changes are required in the early stages, improvisation is inevitable.
Watering every day is the base of the method. If there are some issues in the watering process, the whole project can be jeopardised.
It is very important to keep the forest weed-free for the first 2-3 years, and then it is self-sufficient to keep the weeds away. Maintain the forests clean and free from plastic, paper, etc. as we are growing a natural forest.
Also, one important step at Miyawaki Method of Afforestation is that there should be absolutely no use of chemical pesticides and fertilisers to kill the pests. Leave the pests untouched. The forests will slowly build its own mechanism to keep itself healthy.
Never remove the organic fallen leaves on the land as they can be useful to kill the soil microbes and also increase the nutrient level of the forest land. Never cut the forest in any manner.

Conclusion

Miyawaki Methodology has been hugely successful, with over 17 million trees planted in 1700 locations across the globe. Such forests are multi-layered forests and mimic the densest parts of native undisturbed forests. In comparison to the conventional woods, Miyawaki forest can grow ten times faster, be 30 times denser and 100 times more bio-diverse.

‘Construction of a Forest’ doesn’t seem too vague now after all. If Miyawaki Methodology executed effectively, we could grow a forest in our backyard or any other suitable land in this urban concrete world to take a step closer to a better world.